Looking into holes. Part fourteen
Chance is both an easy and difficult concept. Every time we toss a coin it’s 50:50 whether it’s heads or tails. It doesn’t matter how many times that coin is tossed or whether you’ve had ten heads in a row each toss is 50:50. So here’s an interesting take on how chance works. In America there’s a game show that culminates with the contestant having to make a choice between 3 doors. Behind one door is nothing, another is a goat and the final door is a sports car. The contestant is asked to choose a door behind which they think the main prize is and then choose a door to eliminate. If they’re lucky when they get to two doors the big prize is still there. Inevitably when asked to affirm their original choice of door they always do. It feels like bad luck not to. Interestingly this tactic seems not to favour the contestant and no-one can figure out why. Then a viewer purports a theory. When the original choice is made the odds are 3 to 1. If the choice is made to change when the...