Looking into holes. Part fourteen

 Chance is both an easy and difficult concept. Every time we toss a coin it’s 50:50 whether it’s heads or tails. It doesn’t matter how many times that coin is tossed or whether you’ve had ten heads in a row each toss is 50:50. So here’s an interesting take on how chance works. 

In America there’s a game show that culminates with the contestant having to make a choice between 3 doors. Behind one door is nothing, another is a goat and the final door is a sports car. The contestant is asked to choose a door behind which they think the main prize is and then choose a door to eliminate. If they’re lucky when they get to two doors the big prize is still there. Inevitably when asked to affirm their original choice of door they always do. It feels like bad luck not to. Interestingly this tactic seems not to favour the contestant and no-one can figure out why. Then a viewer purports a theory. When the original choice is made the odds are 3 to 1. If the choice is made to change when there are two doors then the chance of being right improves to 50:50. It sounds mad but it works.

So I have the most aggressive form of leukaemia and it is in a sub group which is the most aggressive sub group. All indicators are that I’m up against it. Other factors come into play though. I’m five years younger than the average in this group, I was relatively fit when I was struck down so I have further to fall, my attitude is total deference to the doctors and a determination to maintain a level of fitness, I have an incredibly strong home network and a surprisingly upbeat mood. I think I change the odds and I think my family change the odds.

What takes us down is the overwhelming nature of illness. Too many things come together and it gets hard not to just create an impenetrable mountain that crushes us. I have, however, always been good at putting things into little boxes. When I was a child I’d get these 1000 piece jigsaws and they looked impossible to put together. First task, tip them over and turn them over, then find the corners and the edges. Now look for unique patterns. At every step without thinking the task gets easier and easier.

I’m putting this jigsaw together and I’m going to finish it.